Updated: 31 августа, 2026 3:00 пп
Jnews.az reports that the expert stated one of the main reasons for the tension is the struggle for control over oil production.
According to him, the US managed to establish a mechanism ensuring the production of several million barrels of oil per day. The Iranian side, however, is trying to prevent this. It is reported that Iran attempted to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz area. In response, US forces struck Iranian missile systems. Tehran, in turn, opened fire on Jordanian territory.
Economic situation worsens in Iran
Citrinowicz noted that severe economic pressure against Iran further complicates the situation. According to him, a fuel shortage has emerged in the country, manifesting in queues at gas stations. The expert stated that Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian presents himself as a politician who defends the interests of the population. Therefore, the recognition of the severe economic situation by the country’s leadership draws particular attention.
Will new sanctions affect negotiations?
The expert is skeptical about the effectiveness of new sanctions in forcing Tehran to negotiations. In his view, there is a serious difference between economic pressure on Iran and the readiness of the Iranian leadership for dialogue. In addition, Tehran also takes into account the domestic political agenda in the US, including the approaching midterm elections.
Likelihood of a major war is assessed as low
According to Citrinowicz’s assessment, there are reports that the Pentagon is exerting pressure on US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth to prevent a full-scale war.
A conviction has formed in Tehran that Washington is trying to avoid a full-scale conflict. The expert believes that this situation in the near future could cause local clashes around the Strait of Hormuz to continue.
Source: cursorinfo.co.il
