It is claimed that possible Iranian ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine could be carried out through Russian-controlled airspace. This was reported in an analysis published by the military-analytical platform eRadar.
According to the analysis, since ballistic missiles spend most of their flight well above the dense layers of the atmosphere—in the stratosphere or higher—the shortest route from northern Iran to Ukraine lies over the Caspian Sea and Russia's Volgograd region.
It is reported that this trajectory, bypassing the airspace of Turkey and the South Caucasus countries, starts from the northern regions of Iran, including Rasht or the Caspian Sea coast, crosses the Caspian Sea, and then heads towards the central parts of Ukraine over Russia's Astrakhan and Volgograd regions.
According to analysts' calculations, the distance from Iran's northern border to Ukraine along this route is approximately 1,900–2,200 kilometers. The analysis notes that the airspace over the northern part of the Caspian Sea is under Russian control.
eRadar believes that if such a scenario materializes, Tehran could use medium-range ballistic missiles such as the Shahab-3 (approximately 2,000 km), Sejjil or Ghadr-110 (2,000–2,500 km), as well as the Kheibar/Khorramshahr (up to 2,000 km).
The analysis suggests that a possible scenario could involve launching a missile from Iranian territory, flying over the international or Iranian waters of the Caspian Sea to enter Russian airspace, and then continuing its movement towards Ukraine.
