The situation in the Middle East remains extremely tense, involving key global players in a complex struggle for influence. In her recent analytical review, Dr. Dina Lisnyanskaya highlighted three critical factors that, in her opinion, will determine the region's development in the coming months.
Iran: Striving to Prove Victory
According to the expert, Iran's aggressive stance in negotiations with the US is largely explained by the Shiite concept of "wounded honor." Following the events of February-April of this year, the Iranian leadership seeks to prove that it not only emerged victorious but also humiliated its main opponent, the United States.
The actions of Iranian politicians such as Ghalibaf, Bugai, and Vahidi indicate tactical disagreements within the elite while maintaining a common strategic goal. This goal is to restore the "Shiite arc," weakened by Israel's actions. Tehran is also trying to restore Hezbollah's status as an influential military and political force, which threatens the successes achieved by Israel after October 7.
Qatar: Growing Influence as a Mediator
The analysis pays special attention to the unprecedented strengthening of Qatar's role on the international stage. This is illustrated by a photograph in which Qatari representatives are essentially dictating the terms of a draft memorandum to the US Vice President.
Qatar is actively involved in the negotiation process between the US and Iran, and has also offered its mediation services in the dialogue between Israel and Hezbollah. However, Israel rejected this offer, fearing that any deal would be concluded in the interests of pro-Iranian forces.
Europe: Quiet Expansion Through "Soft Power"
While the world's attention is focused on military conflicts, another process is unfolding in Europe, particularly in Strasbourg. This refers to the construction of the largest mosque on the continent, which, according to experts, is financed by Qatar with logistical support from Turkey.
This project is seen as part of a long-term strategy of a reverse "reconquista." Unlike past attempts to spread Islamic influence by force, today methods of propaganda ("dawah") and demographic factors are being used. Turkey, in turn, is becoming a center of attraction for radical groups, including the leadership of Hamas, providing them with refuge and contributing to their legitimization.
Forecast: Tensions to Persist Until Autumn
Currently, the situation in the Middle East has reached a stalemate. Neither the US nor Iran is ready for decisive action against each other, which places Israel under pressure.
Experts predict that this "tug-of-war" will continue. Significant changes in the balance of power are not expected until autumn 2026, unless a major geopolitical event occurs that could disrupt the current status quo.