Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar submitted a government decision to officially recognize the alleged «Armenian Genocide» as having historical character. The decision was unanimously approved by the government. While political circles assessed this as a restoration of historical justice and a show of force against Turkey, recognized strategic and security experts in Israel are seriously concerned about the possible consequences of the decision.
Professor Efraim Inbar, President of the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS) and an international expert on Israel-Turkey relations, who was a guest on the «Central Broadcast» program hosted by Yaakov Grodka on «Kol Berama» radio, called this step «a childish and petty serious mistake.» In his opinion, this decision could lead to severe consequences for Israel’s relations with its international allies. According to him, what happened is an attempt to respond to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, but it puts Israel’s vital interests at risk.
Foreign policy should not be built on historical revenge
Professor Inbar stated that Israel has faced pressure for many years from Armenia, human rights organizations, and diaspora Jews regarding the recognition of the «Armenian Genocide.» However, he sharply criticized the timing and motives of the current government’s decision.
«I understand the essence of this issue, but I am not sure this is the right step. This is a childish attempt to strike at the Turks and show them that we can also harm them. Foreign policy should not be conducted by going back to the past and punishing someone, but based on today’s national interests.»
According to him, this decision could also negatively affect secular circles in Turkey who have a positive attitude towards Israel.
«This step will not bring us any particular benefit. Currently, there is a serious internal struggle in Turkey for the future of the country. There are broad secular strata who sympathize with Israel, and we should not take steps that will alienate them from us.»
Behind the scenes of the «low chair» scandal
During the interview, the host recalled the famous diplomatic incident in 2010 when the Turkish ambassador to Israel was made to sit on a low chair in front of cameras.
Professor Inbar revealed a previously unknown detail about that incident:
«The ‘low chair’ issue was completely accidental. I know that room well. A special small chair was not brought in to humiliate the ambassador. They simply seated him on the sofa in the room, and that sofa was lower than the armchair the Deputy Foreign Minister was sitting on. Of course, it was negligence, disrespect, and a lack of sensitivity, but it was not a pre-planned step as everyone thought.»
The biggest blow will be to relations with Azerbaijan, not Turkey
Professor Inbar emphasized that the most serious consequence of the decision may manifest not in relations with Turkey, but with Azerbaijan, one of Israel’s closest strategic partners. According to him, Baku has already condemned Jerusalem’s decision.
«Why do we need this headache? Why should we anger the Azerbaijanis? Azerbaijan is one of Israel’s most important strategic allies. Taking such a step merely to irritate the Turks and thereby harm a strategic partner like Azerbaijan is a very serious mistake.»
How to deal with Erdoğan?
At the end of the interview, Professor Inbar spoke about the power of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the reality created by his military presence in Syria for Israel. In his opinion, Israel should strive to reduce, not increase, tensions.
«Overall, Israel’s interest is to try to reduce tensions. Turkey is a very powerful state and, due to its presence in Syria, has practically reached Israel’s borders. They cannot be provoked with empty public statements. However, this does not mean that it is impossible to influence their sensitive points.»